More curiously, what of those who had already announced the method and tacitly declared outcomes before the chief political arbiter in the state had even spoken?
With the party leadership and President Bola Tinubu effectively ceding control of APC primaries to state governors, the political equation in Cross River has shifted decisively. The development perhaps, has raised inevitable questions for those who, until recently, dismissed suggestions that party tickets in Cross River State would ultimately rest with Governor Bassey Otu, as has been the pattern under previous administrations.
What, now, becomes of the chorus of voices that insisted the Governor’s influence was overstated? Or those who claimed presidential endorsements had already sealed their candidacies and the Governor will be irrelevant or too powerless to decide? More curiously, what of those who had already announced the method and tacitly declared outcomes before the chief political arbiter in the state had even spoken?
If recent events are any guide, Gov Otu is not one to follow predictable scripts. His political style leans toward calculated surprises that are deliberate, strategic, and certainly disarming. Beneath that unpredictability, there’s also a discernible framework that leans towards inclusivity.
In 2027, I see the Governor correcting the mistake of 2023 where for the first time in the history of the state in the current Republic, Cross River had no female representation in the National Assembly. He is likely going to favour having more elected women into the National Assembly; maybe, at least one female candidate per senatorial district. He’ll also expand female participation in the State House of Assembly.
Also, his decisions will almost certainly reflect a balance between political realities and public sentiment. Considerations such as zoning and power rotation will not be ignored, but neither will they be applied mechanically. Instead, they will be weighed alongside a larger objective of maintaining cohesion within the party while positioning it for electoral strength.
Similarly, the Governor will unarguably be guided by his succession strategy and plan in the choice of who flies the APC ticket in 2027. He’ll think beyond immediate electoral gains by ensuring that the choices he’ll make not only align but can shape the political dynamics of 2031 to his favour. He’ll not overlook the politics of who he’ll eventually hand over to.
The outcome of the primaries, therefore, may unsettle entrenched expectations. Some decisions will surprise, even disappoint certain blocs. But they are likely to be calibrated in a way that makes outright resistance difficult. In essence, the Governor’s choices may not satisfy everyone, but they will be difficult to fault outrightly.
The primaries, especially in competitive areas will take the same approach as the politics that brought the State Chairman of APC, Rt Hon Chris Eta. His emergence was unexpected, largely uncontested, and ultimately accepted. Many who had nursed ambitions or backed alternative candidates found themselves conceding, if reluctantly, that the choice was defensible.
That same template may well define the forthcoming primaries, particularly in the most contentious races. Candidates widely presumed to have secured tickets may yet find the ground shifting beneath them, while less obvious contenders will emerge with broader acceptability. Some people that’ll fly APC ticket have not even declared, some don’t even know themselves.
In the end, the prevailing sentiment may not be one of unanimous enthusiasm, but of reluctant consensus that would leave people with conclusions like, “It may not have been my first choice, but it is not a bad one.” For Gov. Otu, that may be the most strategic victory of all; disarming opposition within and outside the party not through force, but through carefully engineered acceptance.
Inyali Peter (PhD) is a journalist from Obudu local government area.
NB: Opinions expressed in this article are strictly attributable to the author, Inyali Peter (PhD), and do not represent the opinion of TheInvestigator or any other organisation the author works for/with.